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FameEX Weekly Market Trend | July 18, 2024
2024-07-18 18:39:45
1. BTC Market Trend
From July 15 to 17, the BTC spot price swung from $59,861.93 to $66,013.27, a 10.28% range. The increase during this period was mainly due to the increased probability of Trump’s victory in this year’s US presidential election and the market’s expectations for the listing of the Ethereum ETF in the US next Tuesday.
In the past three days, important statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) include:
1) On July 15, Fed’s Goolsbee was concerned that policy might become too strict as inflation declines, justifying a rate cut soon.
2) On July 16, Federal Chairman Powell stated that the recent decline in inflation has boosted confidence. He was very concerned about the deficit issue over time. He has begun using ChatGPT to generate potential questions for press conferences, but it has not yet been used as a tool for monetary policymaking. He declined to provide guidance on the timing of rate changes, stating that policymakers will decide at each meeting. Daly increased confidence that inflation is returning to target, expecting policy adjustments in the near future.
3) On July 17, Fed’s Kugler indicated that a rate cut later this year is appropriate, and the process of lowering inflation is back on track. She supported an early rate cut if the unemployment rate continues to rise. Governor Waller suggested that the timing of rate cuts is approaching based on the scenario analysis, though the exact timing is not very important. Williams stated that the Fed is closer to cutting rates but is not yet ready to do so, the U.S. may need a rate cut in the coming months.
The Russian Ministry of Finance proposed allowing licensed exchanges like the Moscow Exchange and the St. Petersburg Exchange to offer digital currency trading services to selected qualified investors. Anatoly Aksakov, Chairman of the State Duma Financial Market Committee, believes that Russia’s largest exchanges are ready to handle cryptocurrency trading. He emphasized that once the legal framework is established, the exchanges should be able to quickly start crypto trading without any issues.
Forbes published a list of the top ten best-performing cryptocurrencies in the first half of 2024, which are WIF (annual increase of 1306% with a market cap of $2.1 billion), PEPE (annual increase of 815% with a market cap of $5 billion), ASI (annual increase of 545% with a market cap of $3.6 billion), FLOKI (annual increase of 392% with a market cap of $1.6 billion), JASMY (annual increase of 343% with a market cap of $1.4 billion), AR (annual increase of 188% with a market cap of $1.8 billion), CORE (annual increase of 152% with a market cap of $1.2 billion), TON (annual increase of 135% with a market cap of $18.8 billion), BGB (annual increase of 100% with a market cap of $1.6 billion), and BONK (annual increase of 90% with a market cap of $1.5 billion).
Fox reporter Eleanor Terrett revealed on social media that JD Vance, a 40-year-old Ohio Senator nominated by Trump for the next US Vice President, has a strong pro-crypto record:
1) Voted to repeal SAB;
2) Criticized the SEC sharply over TheDebtBox incident;
3) Proposed a 2023 bill to improve bank regulation and ensure that clients like crypto companies and gun manufacturers are not discriminated against;
4) In 2022, JD Vance disclosed holding up to $250,000 in BTC.
In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump stated that although the crypto industry is still in its early stages, he does not want other countries, especially China, to dominate this field. He emphasized that the US has a good foundation in the crypto industry and revealed that he had interacted with several industry leaders during political fundraising activities. Additionally, part of Trump’s campaign funds from the last quarter came from cryptocurrencies.
Former US President Trump will attend the 2024 Bitcoin Conference and deliver a speech. Attendees will be able to interact with Trump and participate in roundtable discussions. This special event will be held on Saturday, July 27, 2024, at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennessee. The fee structure is as follows:
· $844,600 per person, including VIP reception, roundtable discussion, and photo with President Trump.
· $60,000 per person or $100,000 per two people, including VIP reception and photo with President Trump. Payment methods will also support cryptocurrencies.
Glassnode stated in its weekly on-chain report that large entities currently hold about 4.9 million Bitcoins, equivalent to 25% of the circulating supply. Among these entities, CEX and ETF custodians account for the largest proportion. The report noted that after a German government address completely sold off its Bitcoin holdings, there seemed to be a short-term relief from sellers and a reflow of demand to support the market. Market profitability remains very strong, with most Bitcoin supplies maintaining a favorable cost basis below the current spot price.
Source:https://news.marsshare.cc/flash
From July 18 to July 21, the BTC spot price will follow trends of major global asset classes, showing a slight probability of minor gains, followed by sideways minor fluctuations.
Bloomberg analysts predict that the U.S. Ethereum ETF listing on Tuesday, July 23 will likely lead to a rise in the top 20 major coins, including ETH and BTC. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, is expected to attract incremental investments, thereby potentially boosting ETH prices in the short term and indirectly impacting the prices of BTC and other major coins.
It is advisable to maintain a holding position: sell orders at $4,700 for the ETH spot, buy orders at $2,500 for bargain-hunting, sell orders for the BTC spot at $72,500 and $77,500, and buy orders at $42,950 should remain active.
2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators
Overall market cap analysis, source:https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
24h trading volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
3. Perpetual Futures
In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.
Recently, the BTC contract open interest has surged significantly, while the ETH contract open interest has risen slowly. This indicates that the positive impact on the crypto market from events such as the attempted assassination of Trump and the potential listing of the U.S. Ethereum ETF next Tuesday is greater.
Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:
Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:
Note: All the above information is provided for reference purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment advice.
4. Industry Roundup
1) On July 15, South Korea considered postponing taxation on cryptocurrency investment income. South Korean prosecutors applied for an arrest warrant for Hancom’s chairman, suspected of raising illegal funds through virtual currency.
2) On July 15, China’s National Bureau of Statistics released data: the GDP for the first half of the year was 61.6836 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% at constant prices.
3) On July 15, a UN report indicated that the Bitcoin mining has increased global energy consumption by 34 times over the past eight years.
4) On July 15, the U.S. Republican Party officially nominated Trump as the party’s presidential candidate. U.S. media reported that Musk would donate $45 million per month to support Trump.
5) On July 15, European online retailer Shopinbit settled 98.18% of June transactions in cryptocurrency.
6) On July 16, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen emphasized concerns about Russia using cryptocurrency to evade sanctions. Russia’s State Duma committee proposed initial approval of cryptocurrency mining regulation.
7) On July 16, France included Bitcoin in retirement savings.
8) On July 16, the IMF released the World Economic Outlook report: It predicts China’s economy will grow by 5% in 2024, up 0.4 percentage points from the April report, maintains global GDP growth at 3.2% for 2024, and raises it to 3.3% for 2025.
9) On July 16, Bloomberg Businessweek/Chinese edition issued a statement apologizing to Zhao Changpeng (CZ) and Binance for false and unsubstantiated cover headlines in the 250th issue (July 6, 2022).
10) On July 16, it was reported that Stripe now supports EU users to purchase cryptocurrencies with credit cards or debit cards.
11) On July 16, crypto KOLs believed that animal-themed memes still dominate the memecoin market. Mog and Popcat are benchmarks for medium-sized memecoins.
12) On July 16, three addresses on the Tron blockchain containing over 140 million USDT were frozen.
13) On July 17, Trump planned to launch his fourth NFT series. In a recent interview, Trump stated he does not wish for a rate cut before November, and Jamie Dimon is one of the candidates for the Treasury Secretary position, discussing tax rates and Fed Chairman Powell. The Fed should avoid a rate cut before the November election.
14) On July 17, the CoinGecko Q2 report indicated that Meme tokens, AI, and RWA are the hottest categories, and Bitcoin mining hash rate has declined for the first time since 2022.
15) On July 17, FTX reached a $1.27 billion settlement agreement with the U.S. CFTC, pending court approval.
16) On July 17, U.S. prosecutors filed a lawsuit against a “pig-killing” scam, seeking to seize 2.54 million USDT from Thai criminals.
17) On July 17, the SEC informed asset management firms that a spot Ethereum ETF may launch on July 23.
18) On July 17, if elected, Trump considered appointing crypto-unfriendly Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, as Treasury Secretary.
19) On July 17, Grayscale established Grayscale Decentralized AI Fund LLC, a decentralized AI new fund company.
20) On July 17, Taiwan enacted new anti-money laundering laws, imposing up to two years of imprisonment for illegal operators.
21) On July 17, exiled Chinese businessman Guo Wengui was sentenced to decades in prison in the United States for a multi-billion-dollar scam. The SEC also accused Guo Wengui of orchestrating a $500 million cryptocurrency project H-Coin, falsely claiming the project had 20% gold backing.
22) On July 17, the Fed Beige Book indicated that the U.S. economy shows slight growth, with cooling inflation.
23) On July 17, the Basel Committee released updated regulatory rules for crypto asset banks.
24) On July 17, Argentina established regularization rules for undeclared assets (including cryptocurrencies).
Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.
