FameEX Weekly Market Trend | March 18, 2024

1. Market Trend

From Mar. 14 to Mar. 17, the BTC price swung from $64,533.00 to $73,777.00, a 14.32% range. Recently, BTC has experienced a noticeable pullback at the daily level, reaching as low as around $64,500. In the short term, a BTC correction is inevitable, with a significant amount of profit-taking imminent. Currently, the price is far from the MA30 (around $61,500), indicating that a retracement to the moving average is necessary from a technical standpoint. There is considerable upward pressure in the short term, making it unlikely for BTC to quickly surpass $70,000 and reach new highs. Instead, it is more probable to see a volatile range of around 2,000 points. Therefore, trading at this stage is not advisable. However, the bullish sentiment remains the mainstream view, and while staying cautious, short positions are not recommended. Around the $65,000 mark, it may be considered to gradually enter the market, with a focus on buying at lower levels.

Source: BTCUSDT | Binance Spot 

From Mar. 14 to Mar. 17, the price of ETH/BTC fluctuated between 0.05280 and 0.05492, a 4.01% range. As mentioned earlier, it’s advisable to patiently wait for a potential partial pullback and seize suitable opportunities (between 0.05200-0.05350) to enter the market. ETH/BTC is currently following BTC into a correction, and the entry points mentioned earlier have been successfully reached in recent days. Investors who have entered the market should remain calm and patient. Due to the positive impact of the Dencun upgrade, ETH has entered the correction phase ahead of BTC. It is highly likely that ETH will also step out of the downtrend and begin to rise in the later period. At present, holding patiently is advisable. If ETH/BTC further corrects in the later period, additional positions can be added around 0.051000.

Source: ETHBTC | Binance Spot 

Based on overall analysis, currently, many coins, including BTC, have experienced a retracement trend, with the retracement percentages significantly higher than that of BTC. Therefore, it’s crucial to exercise extra caution when trading altcoins at this stage. Many altcoins have already seen substantial gains, and there’s a high probability that whales will use BTC’s current pullback to heavily wash out positions. It’s advisable to patiently wait for BTC’s adjustment. When the market reaches the end of the adjustment phase (which will likely occur when the price touches around $62,500 or if it holds above $65,000 for more than 3 days), then asset allocation can be adjusted based on the market conditions at that time.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index of 1.67 is over the DCA level ($56,670), indicating the need to be cautious of investment risks.

Source: OKLink

2. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: coinsoto

In the recent period, both BTC and ETH contract open interest have experienced a decline.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

3. Industry Roundup

1) On March 14, BNB Chain launched a Rollup service solution.

2) On March 14, Musk stated that Tesla will “at some point” accept DOGE payments.

3) On March 14, Franklin Templeton expressed that meme coins may offer “quick profit opportunities” for investors.

4) On March 15, JPMorgan Chase reported that retail and institutional investors have been purchasing gold and Bitcoin futures.

5) On March 15, the website of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) crashed.

6) On March 15, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission warned the public to be cautious of the unlicensed virtual asset trading platform MEXC.

7) On March 16, the President of El Salvador announced that daily investment in one Bitcoin will continue until the day Bitcoin cannot be purchased with fiat currency.
8) On March 16, the value of Bitcoin held by the U.S. government rose to $14.4 billion.

9) On March 17, the 7-day USDC supply increased by 1.3 billion coins.

10) On March 17, the Finance Minister of India stated that cryptocurrency cannot be considered currency and has raised regulatory issues with the G20.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.