FameEX Weekly Market Trend | June 13, 2024

1. BTC Market Trend

From June 10 to June 12, the BTC price swung from $66,152.4 to $70,153.48, a 6.05% range. 

Summary of recent speeches by FOMC voting members - High inflation undermines confidence in rate cuts, with two members leaning towards rate hikes.

1) Fed Chair Powell stated that the Fed needs patience and more evidence of high rates curbing inflation. The inflation is expected to decline month by month, but the price data for the first quarter has weakened confidence in meeting the inflation target.

2) Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that rates should stay steady until more evidence shows inflation returning to 2%. The Fed’s policy is restrictive, but the slowdown in anti-inflation progress in the first quarter is concerning.

3) Permanent FOMC voting member Williams said the inflation is still too high, and its performance since the beginning of the year has been disappointing; however, price pressures are expected to ease further in the second half of this year; it is uncertain when rate cuts will begin, and the extent of easing needed is unclear.

4) Fed Governor Bowman said the inflation would remain high for some time and does not rule out rate hikes if necessary. He expressed a hope to maintain the pace of balance sheet reduction, supporting delaying the slowdown or moderating the planned pace of the reduction.

5) Fed Governor Barr indicated that inflation readings in the first quarter are disappointing, unable to provide the confidence needed to ease monetary policy. Hence, it will take longer than previously expected to remain on hold.

6) Fed Governor Waller stated that the monetary policy is sufficiently tight. Data showed no need for rate hikes. If supported by data, rate cuts may be considered by the end of the year; however, several more months of good inflation data are needed before considering rate cuts.

7) San Francisco Fed President Daly said she was not yet convinced that the inflation is sustainably falling to 2%. There was still no evidence displaying a need for a rate hike. The Fed policy was restrictive, but reducing the inflation may still take time.

8) Richmond Fed President Barkin stated that ongoing inflation in housing and services would keep overall inflation above our target. Therefore, more time was needed to lower inflation, and rate cuts would follow once confidence in reducing inflation was regained.

9) Cleveland Fed President Mester said rate cuts are possible if the economy worsens unexpectedly. If inflation stalls or reverses, rates can be maintained or raised. Three rate cuts this year are no longer expected.

10) Atlanta Fed President Bostic did not expect a rate cut in July but remained open to data. The fourth quarter could be time for rate cuts; September cuts are possible if data supports.

11) Fed Governors Cook and Kugler have not commented on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy since the May FOMC meeting.

Here are recent key public statements from the European Central Bank (ECB):

1) On June 10, Governor Kazimir cautioned against rushing into another rate cut, suggesting a wait-and-see approach through the summer. September will be crucial with a lot of new data; not yet time for comprehensive rate cuts.

2) On June 11, President Lagarde indicated that the ECB might keep rates unchanged for more than one meeting.

3) On June 11, Chief Economist Lane stated no preset path for rates, and rates would remain sufficiently restrictive if needed. The ECB must carefully analyze and interpret upcoming data.

4) On June 11, Governor Simkus said it was too early to declare victory over inflation. Rates could be further lowered if the ECB is confident in achieving the 2% target.

5) On June 12, Governor Kazaks expected further rate cuts this year.

Since early June, the Bank of Canada and the ECB announced rate cuts, raising the trend among major central banks. However, last Friday’s unexpectedly high U.S. non-farm payroll numbers reduced bets on Fed rate cuts this year, easing concerns about the U.S. heading toward an economic cliff. The rate market now excludes expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year, reducing it to one, with the earliest cut expected between September and November.

In May, the U.S. unadjusted annual CPI recorded 3.3%, lower than the expected 3.4% and down from the previous 3.4%, marking a three-month low. The monthly rate recorded 0%, the lowest since July 2022, also below the expected 0.1% and the previous 0.3%. The unadjusted annual core CPI recorded 3.4%, below the expected 3.5% and down from the previous 3.6%. The monthly core CPI recorded 0.2%, below both the expected and previous 0.3%.

Source: BTCUSDT | FameEX 

There were several failed attempts to break through the BTC spot price of $72,500. Based on the current position allocation, it is recommended to place more BTC spot sell orders at $72,500 and correspondingly place more bottom-fishing buy orders at $54,050. The ETH spot buy order at $3,460 was filled yesterday, so the next bottom-fishing buy order can be placed at $2,500, and the sell order can continue to be placed at $4,700.

According to the ahr999 coin hoarding indicator, the current indicator value for BTC is 1.16, which is below the DCA level ($70,340) but above the buy-the-dip level ($43,070). Therefore, it is advisable to continue dollar-cost averaging into top cryptocurrencies.

Source: OKLink

2. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: CoinAnk

Recently, both the BTC and ETH contract open interest has declined.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Note: All the above information is provided for reference purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment advice.

3. Industry Roundup

1) On June 10, “Fed’s Unofficial Spokesman” Nick Timiraos revealed that observers anticipated the Fed would cut rates once or twice in September or December this year; the focus on the dot plot overshadowed the Fed officials’ consensus on holding rates steady.

2) On June 10, a memecoin trader made a profit of $4.2 million on Kendu, achieving a 619x return.

3) On June 10, a survey showed that nearly 50% of New Zealand respondents already own or are considering investing in cryptocurrency.

4) On June 10, Citibank, DBS, and other banks increased scrutiny of high-net-worth clients after Singapore’s largest money laundering case. In August last year, 10 people, including Su Baolin, the founder of XBB Investment, were arrested for forging documents and money laundering, involving assets worth about 1 billion SGD, all originally from Fujian Province, China.

5) On June 10, APT, STRK, and IMX were expected to undergo large token unlocks from June 12 to 15.

6) On June 10, Loopring implemented a collaboration with SlowMist and other security experts and relevant institutions to continue investigating the smart wallet vulnerability attack. The stolen assets have been exchanged for ETH.

7) On June 10, the Cybersecurity Agency of Singapore warned businesses about the threat of the Akira ransomware variant.

8) On June 10, South Korea released guidance on defining NFTs and virtual assets.

9) On June 11, top crypto VCs like Paradigm, Polychain Capital, Multicoin Capital, Haun Ventures, and Blockchain Capital saw significant asset valuation increases in 2023.

10) On June 11, a Hamas official stated they could accept the UN’s ceasefire resolution, ready to negotiate details.

11) On June 11, a report indicated that nearly half of New Zealanders are interested in cryptocurrencies as an alternative to real estate investment.

12) On June 11, it was believed that the end of the month marks a key deadline for the EU’s MiCA, with stablecoin regulations being gradually implemented.

13) On June 11, ICBC International published a report stating Bitcoin retains scarcity similar to gold. Additionally, the bank referred to Bitcoin as digital gold and Ethereum as digital oil.

14) On June 11, the balances of users’ Bitcoin and Ethereum on centralized exchanges dropped to a four-year low.

15) On June 11, the EU warned that Bitcoin’s Lightning Network and other Layer 2 solutions might be “misused by criminals”.

16) On June 11, a US Senate bill required the crypto industry to transform to identify users’ identities, but industry insiders believed the bill had a low chance of passing.

17) On June 12, the EU Security Innovation Center stated that crypto mixers, privacy coins, and Layer 2 technologies complicate law enforcement tracking.

18) On June 12, the 2024 EU election results showed several pro-crypto parties had won seats.

19) On June 12, Trump met with US Bitcoin miners and pledged support for Bitcoin mining, believing miners help stabilize the grid’s energy supply.

20) On June 12, it was reported that nearly $19 billion worth of cryptocurrencies had been stolen in the past 13 years, including 220 security breaches, 345 DeFi hacks, and 220 fraud schemes.

21) On June 12, the Dubai International Financial Centre mentioned a close communication with Hong Kong on cross-border regulation of virtual assets, involving all tokenized assets.

22) On June 12, Polymarket predicted a 56% chance of Trump winning the election, leading Biden by nearly 22 percentage points.

23) On June 12, Itau Unibanco, the largest bank in Brazil, started offering cryptocurrency trading services to all users.

24) On June 12, the Turkish subsidiary of BBVA (the second largest bank in Spain) launched cryptocurrency custody services.

25) On June 12, according to K33 Research, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks reached its highest level in 18 months.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.