FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin Price Indicators Signal Potential for Further Upside

Bitcoin options and futures markets are showing moderate optimism after reaching a new all-time high, signaling potential for further price gains. Bitcoin surged by 10.5%, climbing to $75,350 from Nov. 5 to Nov. 6, following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The event has injected a new wave of enthusiasm into the market, as participants speculate on how Trump’s policies may influence Bitcoin's performance in the coming months.

The current market foundation appears strong, supporting the possibility of sustained growth. Bitcoin derivatives reflect an improved sentiment, highlighting a lack of excessive leverage—a critical factor for gains beyond the $75,000 mark. In particular, institutional investor interest and developments in Bitcoin options markets are laying the groundwork for future price increases. However, despite the positive momentum and a potentially favorable regulatory environment under Trump’s administration, traders remain cautiously optimistic.

One source of trader caution stems from the past six months, during which Bitcoin struggled to maintain levels above $72,000, leading to lingering skepticism. Adding to this uncertainty is the upcoming U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Nov. 7, where a decision on interest rates will be made, followed by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Traders are wary that traditional stock markets might benefit more than Bitcoin if there’s a 0.25% rate cut, especially with Trump’s hints at a nationalist economic agenda, including tariffs on imports and taxes on companies outsourcing jobs.

Long-term impacts of the election results on Bitcoin demand remain uncertain. If the Trump administration successfully reduces the U.S. fiscal deficit through budget cuts, it could diminish the appeal of alternative hedges like Bitcoin and gold. This scenario could shift some investor interest away from Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, introducing mixed effects on Bitcoin demand as Trump’s policies unfold.

To assess whether the recent rally is sustainable, analysts are watching the BTC options market, particularly the 25% delta skew, which reflects the balance between call and put options. After briefly displaying bullish signals, the BTC options skew returned to a neutral 6% on Nov. 6, aligning with the Bitcoin futures market’s moderate optimism and absence of excessive leverage—a setup that supports potential upward momentum.

With Bitcoin derivatives indicating a bullish outlook, the market might need some time to adjust to new price levels. Additionally, skepticism around the Federal Reserve’s ability to achieve a “soft landing” without a recession hints at potential expansive stimulus, which could be especially bullish for Bitcoin prices in the near future.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for informational purposes only, doesn't represent any investment advice or FameEX's official view.