FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin Price Indicators Point to Potential for Continued Upside

Bitcoin options and futures markets are exhibiting moderate optimism after reaching a new all-time high, hinting at further potential price gains. Following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin surged by 10.5%, climbing to $75,350 from Nov. 5 to Nov. 6. This milestone has invigorated market enthusiasm as investors speculate on how Trump’s policies might impact Bitcoin’s performance in the months ahead.

The market foundation appears robust, pointing to a possibility of sustained growth. Improved sentiment in Bitcoin derivatives, along with the absence of excessive leverage, provides a favorable setup for gains beyond $75,000. Increased institutional investor interest and positive developments in Bitcoin options markets are further establishing the groundwork for future price increases. However, despite the current upward momentum and a potential for regulatory support under Trump’s administration, traders are cautiously optimistic, balancing enthusiasm with skepticism.

This caution partly stems from Bitcoin’s past six months, during which it struggled to maintain levels above $72,000, leading to some lingering skepticism among traders. Another contributing factor is the upcoming U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Nov. 7, where an interest rate decision is anticipated, followed by comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Some traders worry that a 0.25% rate cut could benefit traditional stock markets more than Bitcoin, especially as Trump has hinted at a nationalist economic agenda, including tariffs on imports and taxes on companies that outsource jobs.

Long-term implications of the election on Bitcoin demand remain uncertain. If Trump’s administration successfully implements budget cuts and reduces the U.S. fiscal deficit, it could decrease the demand for alternative hedges like Bitcoin and gold. Such a fiscal approach could shift some investor interest away from Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, introducing mixed effects on Bitcoin demand as these policies take shape.

To evaluate the sustainability of Bitcoin’s recent rally, analysts are closely monitoring the BTC options market, particularly the 25% delta skew, which shows the balance between call and put options. After briefly signaling bullish sentiment, the BTC options skew returned to a neutral 6% on Nov. 6, aligning with moderate optimism in the Bitcoin futures market and a lack of excessive leverage. This setup supports the possibility of further upward momentum.

Currently, Bitcoin derivatives indicate a generally bullish outlook, though the market may need time to adjust to these new price levels. Additionally, doubts around the Federal Reserve’s capacity to achieve a “soft landing” without triggering a recession suggest potential for expansive stimulus measures—conditions that could prove particularly favorable for Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the near future.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for informational purposes only, doesn't represent any investment advice or FameEX's official view.